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DOI: 10.15507/2658-4123.029.201904.510-528
Forecast of the Number of Doctorate Holders in Russia
Valery A. Gurtov
Director of Budget Monitoring Center, Petrozavodsk State University (33 Prospekt Lenina, Petrozavodsk 185910, Russia), D.Sc. (Physics and Mathematics), Professor, ResearcherID: D-5286-2015, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2442-7389, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Liudmila V. Shchegoleva
Head of Department of Budget Monitoring Center, Petrozavodsk State University (33 Prospekt Lenina, Petrozavodsk 185910, Russia), D.Sc. (Engineering), Associated Professor, ResearcherID: F-4064-2016, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5539-9176, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Sergey I. Pakhomov
Professor of Chemical Physics Chair, National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (Moscow Engineering Physics Institute) (31 Kashirskoe Shosse, Moscow 115409, Russia), D.Sc. (Chemistry), ResearcherID: AAE-3841-2019, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7855-5394, ScopusID: 57196116928, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Introduction. Personnel of the highest scientific qualification are the basis of staffing the competitive development all sectors of the national economy of the Russian Federation. At the same time, there is no reliable statistical information about the total number of Candidates and Doctors of Sciences and their age structure. Scientific publications do not present approaches to carry out the estimate of the number of persons with scientific degrees.
Materials and Methods. The article proposes a model for calculating the age-specific number of Candidates and Doctors of Sciences on the basis of annual statistical data on the number of defenses of candidate and doctoral theses and survival rates. Since the detailed data are presented only for the period starting from 2008, and the aggregated data are not known for all years, the corresponding interpolation methods are proposed to restore the missing data. According to the proposed models, calculations of estimates of the number of Candidates and Doctors of Sciences are made, approximation functions are constructed. The results of the calculations were verified on the basis of statistical data on the number of researchers with a degree of Candidate and Doctor of Sciences in different sectors of the economy and the number of Candidates and Doctors of Sciences among the teaching staff of universities.
Results. The results of the study are 6 models for calculating the number of Candidates and Doctors of Sciences, approximation function of the multiplicative survival coefficient for persons with scientific degrees, approximation functions of the age distribution of the applicants of degrees of Candidate and Doctor of Science, approximation functions of agerelated and cumulative distribution of the number of Candidates and Doctors of Sciences, quantitative estimates of the number of Candidates and Doctors of Sciences in 2019.
Discussion and Conclusion. The proposed models have shown their adequacy. As a result of the calculations, it was found that the number of Candidates of Sciences in the age category of 20–80 years is 468,000 people, and the number of Doctors of Sciences in the age category of 30–90 years is 72,000 people. According to the obtained numerical values, approximating functions were constructed to get the number of Candidates and Doctors of Sciences in any age range. Since the system of personnel of the highest scientific qualification is sufficiently inert, the data obtained of age structure of the personnel of the highest scientific qualification will retain its character for at least another 10 years. The obtained estimates of the number of persons with scientific degrees allow us to characterize the personnel potential for decision-making in the management of high-tech sectors of the economy. The constructed models can be used to solve the problems of forecasting in the field of development of science-intensive technologies and in higher education for the training of highly qualified scientific personnel and replenishment of the scientific community.
Keywords: аcademic degree, Сandidate of Sciences, dynamic model, age structure, approximating function, statistical data, highly qualified staff, thesis defense
Acknowledgements: Authors express their gratitude to colleagues from Budget Monitoring Center of PetrSU for their assistance in data processing. The article was prepared in the course of the research work “Scientific and Methodical Support” of 2019 for the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation: Register No. 730000F.99.1.BV16AA01000.
For citation: Gurtov V.A., Shchegoleva L.V., Pakhomov S.I. Forecast of the Number of Doctorate Holders in Russia. Inzhenerernyye tekhnologii i sistemy = Engineering Technologies and Systems. 2019; 29(4):510-528. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15507/2658-4123.029.201904.510-528
Contribution of the authors: V. A. Gurtov – study, processing, analysis, interpretation of data; L. V. Shchegoleva – study conception, planning and supervising of the study; S. I. Pakhomov – supervision, study conception, involvement in planning.
All authors have read and approved the final manuscript.
Received 04.07.2019; revised 15.08.2019; published online 31.12.2019
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